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Its Not About What You Know

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Maxim associated with the US invasion of Republic of iraq

"There are known knowns" is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defence force Donald Rumsfeld gave to a question at a U.Southward. Department of Defense (DoD) news briefing on February 12, 2002, almost the lack of evidence linking the government of Republic of iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.[1]

Rumsfeld stated:

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are e'er interesting to me, considering every bit nosotros know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things nosotros do non know. But in that location are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to exist the difficult ones.[1]

The statement became the discipline of much commentary including a 2013 documentary picture, The Unknown Known, directed past Errol Morris.[2]

Origins [edit]

Rumsfeld'southward statement brought much fame and public attention to the concepts of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, only national security and intelligence professionals take long used an assay technique referred to as the Johari window. The thought of unknown unknowns was created in 1955 past two American psychologists, Joseph Luft (1916–2014) and Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) in their development of the Johari window. They used it equally a technique to aid people better understand their human relationship with themselves also equally others.

The term was also commonly used inside NASA.[3] Rumsfeld cited NASA administrator William Graham in his memoir; he wrote that he had first heard "a variant of the phrase" from Graham when they served together on the Committee to Appraise the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United states of america during the late 1990s.[iv] Kirk Borne, an astrophysicist who was employed as a data scientist at NASA Goddard Infinite Flight Center at the time, noted in an April 2013 TED talk that he had used the phrase "unknown unknowns" in a talk to personnel at the Homeland Security Transition Planning Office a few days prior to Rumsfeld's remarks, and speculated that the term may have percolated upward to Rumsfeld and other high-ranking officials in the defense department.[v]

The terms "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" are often used in project management and strategic planning[half dozen] circles.

Known unknowns refers to "risks y'all are aware of, such equally canceled flights ..."[7]

Unknown unknowns are risks that come up from situations that are so unexpected that they would not exist considered. Gimmicky usage is largely consistent with the primeval known usages. For instance, the term was used in evidence given to the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining in 1979:

Site conditions always pose unknowns, or uncertainties, which may go known during construction or operation to the detriment of the facility and peradventure pb to damage of the environment or endanger public wellness and safety. The gamble posed past unknowns is somewhat dependent on the nature of the unknown relative to by feel. This has led me classify unknowns into one of the following 2 types: one. known unknowns (expected or foreseeable weather), which can be reasonably anticipated only not quantified based on past experience as exemplified past case histories (in Appendix A) and 2. Unknown unknowns (unexpected or unforeseeable weather condition), which pose a potentially greater risk just considering they cannot exist anticipated based on by experience or investigation. Known unknowns result from recognized but poorly understood phenomena. On the other mitt, unknown unknowns are phenomena which cannot be expected because there has been no prior feel or theoretical basis for expecting the phenomena.[8]

The term as well appeared in a 1982 New Yorker commodity on the aerospace manufacture, which cites the example of metallic fatigue, the crusade of crashes in de Havilland Comet airliners in the 1950s.[ix]

Reaction [edit]

While the remarks led to some ridicule towards the Bush administration in general and Rumsfeld in particular, there are those who respect the argument. Defenders include Canadian columnist Mark Steyn, who called information technology "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a circuitous matter",[ten] and Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin, who wrote, "Although the language may be tortured, the basic bespeak is both valid and important."[11]

Psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj Žižek says that across these 3 categories in that location is a fourth, the unknown known, that which ane intentionally refuses to acknowledge that ane knows: "If Rumsfeld thinks that the main dangers in the confrontation with Republic of iraq were the 'unknown unknowns', that is, the threats from Saddam whose nature nosotros cannot even suspect, so the Abu Ghraib scandal shows that the main dangers lie in the "unknown knowns"—the disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices nosotros pretend not to know about, even though they form the background of our public values."[12]. Related to this is the concept of tacit noesis, noesis which we may act on, simply not be aware of or able to articulate.

German sociologists Daase and Kessler (2007) agree with a basic bespeak of Rumsfeld in stating that the cognitive frame for political practise may be determined by the relationship between what we know, what we exercise not know, what nosotros cannot know, merely Rumsfeld left out what we do not like to know.[13]

The event has been used in multiple books to discuss risk cess.[2] [14]

Rumsfeld named his 2011 autobiography Known and Unknown: A Memoir. In an "Author'southward Note" at the outset of the book, he expressly acknowledged the source of his memoir's title and mentioned a few examples of his statement'southward prominence, including a Wikipedia article.[15] The Unknown Known is the title of Errol Morris's 2013 biographical documentary film about Rumsfeld.[16] In the documentary, Rumsfield initially defines "unknown knowns" every bit "the things you lot remember y'all know, that it turns out you did not", and toward the cease of the picture show he defines the term as "things that you lot know, that you lot don't know yous know".[17]

In add-on, the comment earned a Foot in Rima oris Accolade.

Analytical sciences [edit]

The term "known unknowns" has been applied to the identification of chemical substances using analytical chemistry approaches, specifically mass spectrometry. In many cases, an unknown to an investigator that is detected in an experiment is actually known in the chemical literature, a reference database, or an Cyberspace resource. These types of compounds are termed "known unknowns". The term was originally coined by Niggling et al.[18] and reported a number of times in the literature since then as a general approach.[nineteen] [20] [21] [22]

Come across besides [edit]

  • Blackness swan theory
  • Dunning–Kruger effect
  • Epistemic modal logic
  • Four stages of competence
  • I know that I know cipher
  • Ignoramus et ignorabimus
  • Ignotum per ignotius
  • Johari window
  • Knightian uncertainty
  • Known and Unknown: A Memoir
  • Exterior Context Problem
  • Russell'due south teapot
  • Undecidable trouble
  • The Unknown Known
  • Wild card (foresight)

References [edit]

  1. ^ a b "Defense force.gov News Transcript: DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers, United States Department of Defense (defense.gov)". February 12, 2002. Archived from the original on March twenty, 2018.
  2. ^ a b Girard, John; Girard, JoAnn (June 1, 2009). A Leader'due south Guide to Noesis Management: Drawing on the Past to Enhance Future Operation. Business Expert Printing. pp. 55–. ISBN9781606490198 . Retrieved Feb 10, 2014.
  3. ^ "NASA Program Direction and Procurement Procedures and Practices: Hearings Earlier the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Commission on Scientific discipline and Technology, U.Due south. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, First Session, June 24, 25, 1981". 1981.
  4. ^ Rumsfeld, Donald (2011). Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin Grouping. p. xiv. ISBN9781101502495.
  5. ^ "Large Data, Small World: Kirk Borne at TEDxGeorgeMasonU". Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved September fourteen, 2015.
  6. ^ "Strategy Under Uncertainty". November 1997.
  7. ^ Biafore, Bonnie (December fourteen, 2011). "Project Direction Fundamentals". Lynda.com. Lynda.com/LinkedIN. Retrieved October 17, 2015.
  8. ^ Statement of Testify of E. D'Appolonia, D'Appolonia Consulting Engineers, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Phase V: Waste material Disposal. Proceedings of the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining. ISBN978-0-7718-8198-v. 0005037606.
  9. ^ Newhouse, J. (June 14, 1982), "A reporter at big: a sporty game; ane-betting the company", New Yorker, pp. 48–105 .
  10. ^ Steyn, Mark (December nine, 2003). "Rummy speaks the truth, not gobbledygook". Daily Telegraph. Retrieved October 30, 2008.
  11. ^ Quiggin, John (February 10, 2004). "In Defence of Rumsfeld".
  12. ^ "What Rumsfeld Doesn't Know That He Knows Near Abu Ghraib". Retrieved February 23, 2009.
  13. ^ Knowns and Unknowns in the 'State of war on Terror': Uncertainty and the Political Construction of Danger, Christopher Daase and Oliver Kessler, Security Dialogue, December 2007; vol. 38, iv: pp. 411–434.
  14. ^ Neve, Geert de; Luetchford, Peter (2008). Hidden Hands in the Marketplace: Ethnographies of Fair Trade, Ethical Consumption, and Corporate Social Responsibleness. Emerald Group Publishing. pp. 252–. ISBN9781848550582 . Retrieved February 10, 2014.
  15. ^ Rumsfeld, Donald (2011). Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin Group. p. thirteen. ISBN9781101502495.
  16. ^ Scott (2014). "Not Giving an Inch in a Battle of Wits and Words; Deciphering Donald H. Rumsfeld in 'The Unknown Known'". The New York Times . Retrieved April iv, 2014.
  17. ^ Morris, Errol (Managing director) (December 13, 2013). The Unknown Known (Motility moving picture). Los Angeles, CA: The Weinstein Company.
  18. ^ Little, J.L.; Cleven, C.D.; Chocolate-brown, S.D. (2011). "Identification of "Known Unknowns" utilizing authentic mass information and chemical abstracts service databases". J. Am. Soc. Mass Spectrom. 22 (2): 348–359. Bibcode:2011JASMS..22..348L. doi:x.1007/s13361-010-0034-3. PMID 21472594.
  19. ^ Little, James L. (2011). "Identification of "known unknowns" utilizing accurate mass data and ChemSpider". Periodical of the American Society for Mass Spectrometry. 23 (one): 179–185. doi:ten.1007/s13361-011-0265-y. PMID 22069037.
  20. ^ Stein, Southward. (2012). "Mass Spectral Reference Libraries: An Always-Expanding Resource for Chemical Identification". Analytical Chemical science. 84 (17): 7274–7282. doi:10.1021/ac301205z. PMID 22803687.
  21. ^ McEachran, Andrew D.; Sobus, Jon R.; Williams, Antony J. (2016). "Identifying known unknowns using the US EPA'due south CompTox Chemistry Dashboard". Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry. 409 (7): 1729–1735. doi:x.1007/s00216-016-0139-z. PMID 27987027. S2CID 31754962.
  22. ^ Schymanski, Emma L.; Williams, Antony J. (2017). "Open up Science for Identifying "Known Unknown" Chemicals". Environmental Science and Technology. 51 (ten): 5357–5359. Bibcode:2017EnST...51.5357S. doi:x.1021/acs.est.7b01908. PMC6260822. PMID 28475325.

External links [edit]

  • "Defence Section Briefing". C-SPAN. Feb 12, 2002.
    Reporter:37:nineteen ...Because there are reports that at that place is no evidence of a direct link between Baghdad and some of these terrorist organizations.
    Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are e'er interesting to me...
  • "DoD News Briefing – Secretarial assistant Rumsfeld and Full general Myers". Transcript. Press Operations. United states of america Section of Defence. Feb 12, 2002.
  • Logan, David C. (March 1, 2009). "Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and the propagation of scientific enquiry". Journal of Experimental Botany. lx (3): 712–4. doi:10.1093/jxb/erp043. PMID 19269994.

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Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_known_knowns

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